Denver — U.S. demand for sugar remains resilient despite consumers’ stated intentions to cut back, but the growing use of GLP-1 medications, health-focused initiatives, and changing dietary preferences could weigh on the sweetener market over the next decade, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.
The report found that rising sugar deliveries, stable consumption levels, and declining use of high-fructose corn syrup continue to point to strong consumer demand for natural sweeteners. However, CoBank cautions that those trends should not be viewed as a guarantee of future demand.
“For sugar producers, refiners and food manufacturers the central question is no longer whether demand is stable today, but how emerging trends will reshape the market over the next decade,” says Billy Roberts, food and beverage economist with CoBank. “GLP-1 medications in particular are poised to have the biggest impact on demand because they reduce overall consumption, and sugar remains deeply embedded across many food and beverage categories.”
J.P. Morgan estimates GLP-1 use could reduce annual U.S. food and beverage spending by $30 billion by 2030 and $55 billion by 2034. Some projections also suggest grocery basket sizes could decline by as much as 31 percent among active users. CoBank noted that while sweetened foods and beverages are unlikely to be singled out, they could experience lower demand as consumers eat less overall. The impact could accelerate after 2031, when key semaglutide patents expire in the U.S., potentially expanding access to lower-cost generic medications.
The report also pointed to health-focused initiatives, including the Make America Healthy Again movement, as factors increasing consumer awareness of added sugars. While those efforts have not yet significantly affected consumption, they could influence long-term purchasing behavior.
Consumer survey data further suggest a changing marketplace. According to the International Food Information Council, 75 percent of consumers in 2025 reported trying to limit or avoid sugar. However, CoBank said consumers are not necessarily replacing sugar with low- or no-calorie sweeteners.
“Health-conscious consumers may reject both sugar and artificial alternatives rather than choosing one over the other,” Roberts says. “That means opposition to artificial ingredients does not necessarily translate into rapid growth for sugar demand. Instead, it tends to support demand for natural sweeteners relative to synthetic options.”
For now, sugar deliveries continue to outperform expectations. USDA data through April showed increased deliveries to wholesale grocers, beverage manufacturers, bakery and cereal producers, and confectionery companies, offsetting declines in shipments to government agencies, dairy processors, foodservice operators, and frozen food manufacturers.
Roberts added that snack manufacturers continue to reformulate products to meet evolving consumer preferences while maintaining taste and affordability. He also notes that natural sweeteners, including stevia, are gaining momentum as manufacturers expand their use across dairy products, baked goods, and other food applications.
“While alternative sweeteners continue to gain some traction, natural sweeteners appear to have stronger long-term momentum,” Roberts says. “These trends suggest that consumers are not simply replacing sugar with artificial sweeteners, but gravitating toward products perceived as more natural.”
